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High Turnover in Indian Elections: A Closer Look
In the ongoing 2024 general elections, more than 8,000 candidates are vying for 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, with many competing for the first time. This high turnover of representatives is a distinctive feature of India’s electoral politics, where incumbency advantage is practically nonexistent. Scholars have long noted the “incumbency disadvantage” prevalent in the Indian political landscape.
In the 2019 elections, only 226 of the elected members of Parliament (MPs) were incumbents, accounting for just 41%. This figure is notably low, even though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had consolidated its majority from the 2014 elections. Only half of the BJP’s MPs were re-elected, while a significant number of new faces emerged. Similarly, among the 228 elected Opposition MPs, only 67 were incumbents, with the rest being first-time MPs. This trend of high political turnover raises important questions about representation and legislative accountability in India.
Analyzing Six Decades of Political Turnover
To understand the high rates of political turnover, we can refer to data from the Trivedi Centre for Political Data’s Indian Individual Incumbency Dataset. This dataset provides insights into the career trajectories of the 90,583 candidates who contested general elections in India from 1962 to 2019.
One key reason for high turnover is that not all incumbent MPs choose to run for re-election. From 1967 to 2019, fewer than 70% of all MPs, on average, sought re-election, and only 55% of these were successful. This means that if re-running rates are not considered, the average share of incumbent MPs in the Lok Sabha stands at a mere 38%.
These figures have been relatively consistent over time. However, the share of re-running MPs tends to increase when general elections occur in close succession, as seen in the 1990s when coalition governments frequently failed to complete their terms. In recent years, the share of rerunning MPs has declined further. In 2019, only 67% of all incumbent MPs stood for re-election.
Party and Regional Variations in Incumbency
The rate of incumbency varies significantly across political parties and regions. For instance, the Congress party tends to retain more of its incumbents compared to the BJP. The renomination strategies of regional parties also fluctuate. In 2014, the ratio of rerunning incumbents was similar across national and regional parties. By 2019, however, regional parties had discarded most of their sitting MPs.
Regional variations also play a crucial role. Large states like Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal exhibit high rates of re-running incumbents. In contrast, smaller states such as Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Telangana saw very few sitting MPs re-running in 2019. For example, none of Chhattisgarh’s eleven MPs elected in 2019 were incumbents, and ten of them were first-time MPs.
Factors Influencing Candidate Reshuffling
Candidate reshuffling is influenced by various factors, including the organizational strategies and recruitment practices of political parties. For instance, the BJP in Gujarat, under Narendra Modi’s chief ministerial tenure, routinely replaced 50% of their members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) each election.
Most political parties tend to recruit candidates from similar sociological pools, often comprising self-funded individuals connected to local business networks. This makes it easier to discard sitting MPs when they are recruited from outside the party’s core organization. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which recruits its candidates from locally dominant social groups, exemplifies this practice. The frequent fielding of turncoats by parties reinforces the notion that candidates are often interchangeable.
The Impact of High Turnover
The high turnover of representatives results in a high proportion of newcomers in the Lok Sabha. Since 1977, three-quarters of all MPs have been either first-time or two-term MPs. While a high turnover can indicate elite circulation, it also limits the cumulative legislative experience among parliamentary representatives. In the 17th Lok Sabha, elected in 2019, only 22% of MPs were elected for a third term or higher, and these experienced MPs were well distributed across parties and regions.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the share of experienced MPs has significantly decreased, reaching levels not seen since the 1970s. This decline is unsurprising given that the BJP won many new seats with new candidates in the past two elections. In contrast, only a few Congress MPs elected in 2019 had served in previous legislatures during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government.
Delhi Lok Sabha Election 2024
Conclusion
The high turnover rates and the challenge of re-election in Indian politics highlight the unique dynamics of incumbency disadvantage in the country. As the 2024 general elections progress, these trends will continue to shape the contours of the new Parliament and the nature of political representation in India. The data and insights from past elections provide valuable context for understanding the complexities and challenges of maintaining political continuity in one of the world’s largest democracies.
